Which part of the contingency is said to increase or decrease the likelihood of the behavior occurring in the future?

The part of the contingency that increases or decreases the likelihood of a behavior occurring in the future is the consequence. In behavior analysis, a consequence refers to what happens immediately following a behavior and is crucial in determining whether that behavior will be repeated. If the consequence is reinforcing (meaning it increases the likelihood of the behavior), the behavior is more likely to occur again in the future. Conversely, if the consequence is punishing (meaning it decreases the likelihood of the behavior), the behavior is less likely to be repeated.

While antecedents set the stage for behaviors to occur and behaviors themselves are the actions taken, it is the consequences that directly influence future behavior patterns through reinforcement or punishment. This fundamental concept is vital in applying behavioral strategies effectively in interventions, particularly for individuals with autism, where understanding the impact of consequences on behavior can lead to more effective support and positive outcomes.